IntelligenceAustralia Fuel & Logistics Risk Watchboard
5 Mar 2026 · Russell
The MRN Fuel & Logistics Risk Watchboard monitors 14 indicators across the fuel supply chain, from upstream geopolitical signals to local retail prices. The watchboard uses a traffic-light system: 🟢 Normal / 🟡 Watch / 🔴 Alert.
Geopolitical & Shipping
| Indicator | Status | Notes | |-----------|--------|-------| | Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic | 🟡 Watch | Elevated regional tension; no active closure | | Red Sea / Suez routing disruption | 🔴 Alert | Houthi activity ongoing; most tankers rerouting via Cape | | Singapore refinery utilisation | 🟢 Normal | No major outages reported | | Global tanker availability (VLCC) | 🟡 Watch | Cape rerouting adding ~14 days to voyage times |
Australian Import & Port
| Indicator | Status | Notes | |-----------|--------|-------| | Tanker arrivals — Port of Brisbane | 🟢 Normal | On schedule | | Tanker arrivals — Port Botany (Sydney) | 🟢 Normal | On schedule | | Fuel import volumes (AIP weekly) | 🟡 Watch | Slight below-average intake past 3 weeks | | Bulk fuel terminal stock levels | 🟡 Watch | Industry data suggests modest drawdown |
Wholesale & Retail Price
| Indicator | Status | Notes | |-----------|--------|-------| | Singapore gasoline (MOPS 95) | 🟡 Watch | Elevated vs 12-month average | | Australian wholesale petrol (rack) | 🟡 Watch | Tracking Singapore signal with ~2 week lag | | Northern Rivers diesel retail | 🟡 Watch | Currently ~$2.18/L; above national average | | Northern Rivers petrol retail | 🟢 Normal | Tracking national average |
Regional Supply Chain
| Indicator | Status | Notes | |-----------|--------|-------| | Pacific Highway access (flood/landslip) | 🟢 Normal | No current closures | | Local service station stock reports | 🟢 Normal | No shortages reported |
Reading the Watchboard
🟢 Normal — No significant deviation from baseline. Standard preparedness applies.
🟡 Watch — An indicator is elevated or trending toward stress. Community and household preparedness should be reviewed. Monitor closely.
🔴 Alert — Active disruption or high-probability near-term impact. Activate community response protocols. Consider increasing local fuel and supply stocks.
What To Do When Indicators Elevate
When two or more indicators move to 🟡 Watch:
- Ensure household fuel and essential supply stocks are at recommended levels (see Go Bag and Food Security posts)
- Community Response Teams should review activation readiness
- Local businesses reliant on diesel should consider timing of next fuel purchase
When any indicator reaches 🔴 Alert:
- Contact your local CRT Area Contact
- Review emergency plan with household
- Monitor BOM, SES, and MRN channels for updates
This watchboard is updated regularly. For the live version with real-time data, visit the MRN Intelligence Dashboard.